EY ITEM Club Autumn Forecast - October 2022

After a summer of downbeat news — whether it be heat waves and droughts or rising energy prices — the UK economy enters the autumn facing some material headwinds.

In this context, a recession around the turn of the year now feels baked in. However, the EY ITEM Club expects any recession to be relatively mild and short-lived, with GDP falling by 0.3% in 2023 and much of the decline concentrated in the first half of the year.

This report, including a foreword by EY's UK Chair Hywel Ball and its UK Chief Economist Peter Arnold, covers current economic trends, commentary on the likely recession, the impact of recent Government policy and why concerns over a potential sterling or balance of payments deficit need to be qualified.